This article was written and emailed to my clients on the 27th of October 2023, a day before the Rugby World Cup final between the Springboks and All Blacks.
The “trend” were definitely the Springbok’s friend and they won their third consecutive World Cup tournament game with just one point!!!
If I had the conviction to take a sizeable bet on them winning a third game with one point I would have made a small fortune. But the risk of “eggs in one basket” and the long-term benefit of investment diversification prevented me from taking a punt on a specific outcome by a specific team. Always better to hedge your bets, unless you have insider information.
Past performance, Trends and Projections explained …
Past Performance …
“This year’s Rugby World Cup Final will take place on Saturday between the rampant All Blacks and their traditional rivals, the Springboks.
The All Blacks stormed into yet another final with a try-fest as their star winger, and tournament-leading try scorer, ran in a hat trick of tries against their hapless opposition.
The Springboks, however, narrowly scraped through their rain-drenched semi-final, with a lone try ultimately deciding the result. Unconvincing at times throughout the tournament, the Springboks face a mighty challenge in trying to stop their much-favoured opponents this weekend.”
Reading this you might think that the Journalist was writing about the 2023 RWC. Actually, this was written about the 1995 Rugby World Cup in South Africa and the winger was Jonah Lomu.
Bizarre how history can repeat itself so accurately, same as with investment markets. Important to always remember that the past performance of any asset class, Black or Green, provides no guarantee for future performance 😊
But based on actual statistics, the All Black has a 61% change to win vs the 39% of the Springboks.
Trends …
If you embrace the investment saying … “The Trend is your Friend”, then the Springboks will win by one point as they did against France and England 😊.
It is however very difficult to predict the next trend and when it will stop or start.
And, predicting the outcome of this weekend’s game is best left to the Players, the Coaches, the Spectators, Suzie, and of course, the English Referee, Wayne Burned !
Projections …
Based on long term past performances the odds that a specific asset class and strategy will perform a certain way can be predicted and used as a guidance to design an investment portfolio. See the RWC predictions completed on the 18th of Sept 2023.
The two finalists have been called correctly, with RSA given a 34% change to win and NZ 25%.
Do you bet/invest with your heart, your gut or do you use statistical data to guide your decision-making process?
Enjoy the games the weekend, may the best team win 😊
